I disagree with their Nikita prediction because I think the only reason Nikita got a renewal last season was so it could reach syndication. It would be an absolute shock if it didn't get renewed for a final 4th season.
I just want to point out before I do my predictions that TVbythenumbers is currently running behind me prediction wise. They initially kept saying 90210 would get a short final season; I said no way and it would be cancelled March. I was right. I said Cult was a certain cancellation. I was right. I said TCD was going to keep on falling and be cancelled, so far it looks like I'm right. I obviously called TVD, SPN, and Arrow were getting renewals, but everyone knew that. AND I just noticed that they are calling HOD for a renewal, which I've been saying all along. They agree with me on Nikita that it will probably get a renewal just for syndication. So the Bear seems to be on the same trail as me, just a little behind...
My current predictions for the remaining CW shows...
Certain Renewals: Hart of Dixie & Nikita (I see both getting a full 22 episode order)
Likely Renewal: Beauty & the Beast (I see it getting a 13 episode Season 2 order right now)
Likely Cancellation: The Carrie Diaries
Certain Cancellation: Cult
(NOTE: I only have TCD as Likely Cancellation to distinguish it from Cult's certain cancellation. Plus, I think TCD maybe could get something if it's numbers increased and all the new Pilots were crap... but I really see it going goodbye.)
Why I think HOD, BATB, & Nikita are getting renewed...
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[li]This will get a 4th (and final) Season. It will get a full order of 22 episodes to bring it to a total of 88 episodes aired. Why?
[/li][li]Syndication. If it reaches 88 episodes, it will reach the minimum ideal number of episodes for syndication deals. Not saying it can't get a syndication deal with lower episodes, as shows such as Roswell (SyFy) & Veronica Mars (SOAPnet & others) have gotten such deals. I'm just saying that more episodes means bigger syndication payouts, so I would be surprised if Nikita didn't get a renewal, especially with the international sales being good on it.
[/li][li]It does pretty bad on Friday nights, but CW really doesn't have anything else right now to go to a Friday night other than ANTM. (I know everyone keeps saying BATB could go to Fridays, but CW is going to move BATB to Tuesday nights if it moves. I keep on saying that; I think I'm right. Look at how they moved Cult to put BATB repeats on Tuesday at 9pm. That is so where they are considering BATB for next Season.)
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[li]I think this will get a Season 3 (and then, ultimately, a Season 4) as it is close to syndication. I'm thinking it's going to get a full season order of 22 episodes if it does get renewed. Why?
[/li][li]It has OK ratings & has done well in its switch from Mondays (last Season) to Tuesdays this Season.
[/li][li]HOD is relatively cheap to produce.
[/li][li]Plus, it has Rachel Bilson who is a CW fave.
[/li][li]In addition, HOD has great Live+7 numbers (Nielson DVR numbers) and it has a lot of online streaming from CWTV.com and Hulu.com, which the CW likes.
[/li][li]And it's the closest show on the CW to not have reached syndication numbers... besides, of course, Nikita. Syndication is lucrative. HOD could easily get a SOAPnet deal like One Tree Hill, I think they are going to continue this for hopes of syndication in the future.
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[li]I think this will get a Season 2 order for an up-front 13 episodes with possibility of full Season 2 order of 22 episodes. Why?
[/li][li]Because CBS claims it has great international sales, and this claim has been backed up recently by a UK TV blog (previously linked on this forum).
[/li][li]It gets 1.5 million per episode for every episode aired outside of the US.
[/li][li]Plus it's the only CBS solely-owned show on CW, other than 90210 that was cancelled. True most of the new Pilots ordered are CBS properties, but I still don't think CBS is going to want to cancel all their shows on CW this season.
[/li][li]BATB has cheaper production because it uses Canadian Production teams and is considered a joint venture between US-Canada.
[/li][li]BATB has a rabid fan base that has it winning just about every competition its in and trending multiple times each week.
[/li][li]BATB had decent online streaming numbers, which I'm sure are even higher now thanks to Tunnelbear & Hotshield downloads by Beasties outside the US who now can access BATB on CWTV.com or Hulu.com
[/li][li]BATB has KK, who is another CW fave actress-wise, because of her time on Smallville.
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Why I think The Carrie Diaries & Cult are getting cancelled...
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[li]Current Prediction is it will be cancelled in May. Why?
[/li][li]TCD will only have 13 episodes by its season 1 run in April. Compare this to BATB (22) and HOD (44) and you can see it's too far from syndication and...
[/li][li] TCD's numbers keep falling. It's had one 0.7, one 0.6, a couple 0.5, but pretty much everything else has been 0.4 for new shows. This isn't good.
[/li][li]CW spent a lot of money on advertising this mid-season show for it to only premiere with 0.6. Very, very bad.
[/li][li]TCD's production costs are high as they try to recreate the 80s in NYC.
[/li][li]Fanbase isn't that rabid. TCD has pretty much no social media presence compared to the other CW shows.
[/li][li] TCD's Season Finale is in April, which meant cancellation for shows in the past on CW - such as Ringer. It's not good that the CW is letting all its episodes run and getting it off the schedule before May sweeps (maybe it will have repeats during sweeps, but I haven't seen May's schedule yet).
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[li]This will be cancelled by May, if not earlier. Why?
[/li][li]I think this one is pretty obvious. The ratings are dreadful. It's currently in "episode burn-off" on Friday nights. This will be the next show CW makes a "cancellation" announcement about.
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